This paper proposes a conceptualization of business cycle fluctuations in which the role of financial conditions and nonlinear dynamics are explicitly incorporated. We highlight the role of investment demand in driving economic fluctuations, consider its endogenous dynamic interactions with...

Quantity rationing of credit, when firms are denied loans, has greater potential to explain macroeconomic fluctuations than borrowing costs. This paper develops a DSGE model with both types of financial frictions. A deterioration in credit market confidence leads to a temporary change in the...

This paper uses a vector autoregression (VAR) approach to identify the driving forces of the growth slowdown in Japan during the 1990s. Negative shocks to both residential and nonresidential investment are shown to have been important determinants of the slowdown. Despite the collapse in asset...

Empirical evidence on the expectations hypothesis of the term structure is in-conclusive and its validity widely debated. Using a cointegrated VAR model of US treasury yields, this paper extends a common approach to test the theory. If, as we find, spreads between two yields are non-stationary,...

Empirical evidence on the expectations hypothesis of the term structure is in-conclusive and its validity widely debated. Using a cointegrated VAR model of US treasury yields, this paper extends a common approach to test the theory. If, as we find, spreads between two yields are non-stationary,...

This paper suggests a term structure model which parsimoniously exploits a broad macroeconomic information set. The model does not incorporate latent yield curve factors, but instead uses the common components of a large number of macroeconomic variables and the short rate as explanatory...

Even if there is a fairly large evidence against the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of interest rates, there still seems to be an element of truth in the theory which may be exploited for forecasting and simulation. This paper formalizes this idea by proposing a way to use...

This paper explores the potential effectiveness of the ECBś Outright Monetary Transaction (OMT) program in safeguarding an appropriate monetary policy transmission. Since the program aims at manipulating bank lending rates by conducting sovereign bond purchases on secondary markets, a stable...

This paper explores the effects of non-standard monetary policies on international yield relationships. Based on a descriptive analysis of international long-term yields, we find evidence that long-term rates have followed a global downward trend prior to as well as during the financial crisis....

In this paper I propose a regime switching approach to explain why the US nominal yield curve has been on average steeper since the mid-1980's than during the Great Inflation of the 1970's. I show that, once the possibility of regime switches in the short-rate process is incorporated into...