This paper presents tests of long run macroeconomic relations involving interest rates, equity, prices and exchange rates suggested by arbitrage in financial and goods markets. It uses the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to test for long run restrictions in each country/region...

This paper focuses on testing long run macroeconomic relations for interest rates, equity, prices and exchange rates suggested by arbitrage in financial and goods markets. It uses the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to test for long run restrictions in each country/region conditioning...

This paper focuses on testing long run macroeconomic relations for interest rates, equity, prices and exchange rates within a model of the global economy. It considers a number of plausible long run relationships suggested by arbitrage in financial and goods markets, and uses the global vector...

This paper presents tests of long run macroeconomic relations involving interest rates, equity, prices and exchange rates suggested by arbitrage in financial and goods markets. It uses the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to test for long run restrictions in each country/region...

This paper focuses on testing long run macroeconomic relations for interest rates, equity, prices and exchange rates within a model of the global economy. It considers a number of plausible long run relationships suggested by arbitrage in financial and goods markets, and uses the global vector...

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...