Frontmatter -- Contents -- Introduction -- 1. Anticipations Variables in an Econometric Model: Performance of the Anticipations Version of Wharton Mark III -- 2. An Evaluation of a Short-Run Forecasting Model -- 3. St. Louis Model Revisited -- 4. A Monthly Econometric Model of the U.S. Economy...

This paper asks the question: Why has the ?general-to-specific? cointegrated VAR approach as developed in Europe had only limited success in the US as a tool for doing empirical macroeconomics, where what might be called a ?theory comes first? approach dominates? The reason this paper highlights...