This study takes up Keynes' ideas concerning long-term expectations, particularly his notion that expectations are subject to sudden changes with strong effects on economic activity. We start by detailing Keynes' views regarding the nature of expectations and their role in the business cycle. I...

Business cycles have historically been an important topic for behaviorally orientedeconomists. The concept of an economic and financial cycle based on interlocking mechanismsleading from the recession to the boom was developed in the 18th and 19th century. The earlybehavioral economics of the...

As one of the first texts to take a behavioral approach to macroeconomic expectations, this book introduces a new way of doing economics. Rötheli uses cognitive psychology in a bottom-up method of modeling macroeconomic expectations. His research is based on laboratory experiments and...

"The notion that expectations play a key role in economic decision making is a very old one. Over the past 100 years, major advances in the application of this insight in the formulation of economic models have been made in various subfields of economics. The concept of extrapolation, the idea...