In confidence theory, the decision maker relies on statistical regularities from the economic environment to adopt prior beliefs about the probabilities stated on a lottery. Following the confidence principle, by which the weight of the prior in Bayesian inference is proportional to the...

This note is based on a recent confidence index introduced in the context of compensating probability factors for deviations of subjective probability measures from equivalent martingale measures. The index is adjusted for loss gain probability spreads, and it explains momentum in confidence. We...

This paper compares two prominent empirical measures of individualrisk attitudes | the Holt and Laury (2002) lottery-choice task and the multi-itemquestionnaire advocated by Dohmen, Falk, Human, Schupp, Sunde and Wagner(forthcoming) | with respect to (a) their within-subject stability over time...

This paper reports the results of informational cascades experiments where two different decision-making systems, anti-seniority and seniority are investigated. By implementing heterogeneous signal qualities associated with the fixed order of decisions I compare the property of each system and...

We study the influence of risk and time preferences on trust and trustworthiness by conducting a field experiment in Vietnamese villages and by estimating the parameters of the Cumulative Prospect Theory and of quasi-hyperbolic time preferences. We find that while probability sensitivity or risk...

This paper reports the results of informational cascades experiments where two different decision-making systems, anti-seniority and seniority are investigated. By implementing heterogeneous signal qualities associated with the fixed order of decisions I compare the property of each system and...

We study the influence of risk and time preferences on trust and trustworthiness by conducting a field experiment in Vietnamese villages and by estimating the parameters of the Cumulative Prospect Theory and of quasi-hyperbolic time preferences. We find that while probability sensitivity or risk...

We report an experiment that infers true overconfidence in relative ability through actions, as opposed to reported beliefs. Subjects choose how to invest earnings from a skill task when the returns depend solely upon risk, or both risk and relative placement, enabling joint estimation of...

The paper reconstructs the history of the experimental attempts to measure the cardinal utility of money between 1950 and 1985 within the framework provided by expected utility theory (EUT). It is shown that this history displays a definite trajectory: from the confidence in EUT and the...

Studying a binary-choice trust game, we observe a negative relationship between people's expectations of others' trustworthiness and their own willingness to trust. This counterintuitive finding may be interpreted as a strategy to avoid negative emotions such as disappointment and regret, which...