This paper investigates whether commodity convenience yields - the yields that accrue to the holders of physical commodities - can predict the exchange rate of commodity-exporters' currencies. Predictability is a consequence of the fact that i) convenience yields are useful predictors for...

Does trade raise growth rates of commodity exporters less than those of industrial goods exporters? Do industrial countries gain more from trade? Do world trade booms over the past two centuries help account for the widening gap between rich and poor countries because of some asymmetric growth...