This paper constructs a model of a supply chain to examine how demand volatility is passed upstream through the chain. In particular, we seek to determine how likely it is that the chain experiences a bullwhip effect, where the variance of the upstream firm's production exceeds the variance of...

Problem description: Purchase costs of raw materials required in production tend to fluctuate over time. Mild cost fluctuations merely affect firms' profitability. Significant variations can lead to supply chain disruption. What are the best contracts to be used in supply chains exposed to...