This paper studies the ability of external imbalances to indicate subsequent exchange rate returns. We propose a simple twist of the Gourinchas and Rey (2007) approximation to the intertemporal budget constraint which is valid for countries that are net creditors (or net debtors) consistently...

A surprisingly large number of countries have been able to finance a significant fraction of domestic investment using foreign finance for extended periods. While many of these episodes are in low-income countries where official finance is more important than private finance, we also identify a...