In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is...

In this paper, we propose a model based on multivariate decomposition of multiplicative - absolute values and signs - components of several returns. In the m-variate case, the marginals for the m absolute values and the binary marginals for the m directions are linked through a 2m-dimensional...

We propose a decomposition of financial time series into Gaussian subsequences characterized by a constant Hölder exponent. In (multi)fractal models this condition is equivalent to the subsequences themselves being stationarity. For the different subsequences, we study the scaling of the...

This paper studies the pitfalls of applying the Cholesky decomposition for forecasting multivariate volatility. We analyze the impact of one of the main issues in empirical application of using the decomposition: The sensitivity of the forecasts to the order of the variables in the covariance...