Since the 1940s, studies of American voting behavior have repeatedly shown that voters make ballot choices in presidential elections predominantly on the basis of long-standing party preferences inherited from families of origin. In accordance with these findings, party choices at the individual...

The theory of economic voting has extensively explored the influence of national economic conditions on votes for the incumbent party during elections. Such literature has never, however, explored the potential effects of economy on other types of voting swings in the sense of change in votes...