This paper investigates the performance of various conditional volatility models to forecast the second moment of tanker freight rates. Justified by existing theoretical and empirical evidence, we focus on asymmetric Markov regime-switching models to study the major global routes for long-haul...

News carry information of market moves. The gargantuan plethora of opinions, facts and tweets on financial business offers the opportunity to test and analyze the influence of such text sources on future directions of stocks. It also creates though the necessity to distill via statistical...

We address the inverse problem of local volatility surface calibration from market given option prices. We integrate the ever-increasing ow of option price information into the well-accepted local volatility model of Dupire. This leads to considering both the local volatility surfaces and their...

In this study I apply forward sensitivity analysis to the dynamical system of nonlinear asset flow differential equations (AFDE). I find that all parameters in AFDE are needed and can be estimated from market prices and net asset values data. Moreover, the market price is the most fluctuating...

This paper analyses Czech and Hungarian index options that are traded on the Austrian Futures and Options Exchange. We find that the Poisson jump-diffusion and not the GARCH (1,1) process lends statistical support for the data description. We estimate that approximately four-fifth of 4 percent...

Based on criteria of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model is constructed, the volatility process being driven by fractional noise. Price return statistics and asymptotic behavior are derived from the model and compared with data....

Recently a variety of exchange and interest rate models capturing the dynamics during the transition from an exchange rate arrangement of floating rates into a currency union have been derived. While these stochastic equilibrium models in continous time are theoretically rigorous, a systematic...

Recent theory on exchange rate dynamics suggests that the mere announcement of regime switching from floating to fixed rates at a given future date triggers a reduction in exchange rate volatility during the interim period. Using a Markov-switching GARCH model this paper estimates the volatility...

The situation of a limited availability of historical data is frequently encountered in portfolio risk estimation, especially in credit risk estimation. This makes it, for example, difficult to find temporal structures with statistical significance in the data on the single asset level. By...

An asymmetric multivariate generalization of the recently proposed class of normal mixture GARCH models is developed. Issues of parametrization and estimation are discussed. Conditions for covariance stationarity and the existence of the fourth moment are derived, and expressions for the dynamic...