When alternatives are compared using an estimated criterion function, this may introduce a discrepancy between the true and the estimated criterion. In this paper, we consider a situation where a preordering (ranking) of stochastic sequences is defined from expected loss/gain, using a parametric...

This chapter reviews Bayesian methods for inference and forecasting with VAR models. Bayesian inference and, by extension, forecasting depends on numerical methods for simulating from the posterior distribution of the parameters and special attention is given to the implementation of the...

Der erste Aufsatz der vorliegenden Dissertation untersucht die Dynamik der realisierten Volatilität. Ein erfolgreiches Model in diesem Bereich ist das sogenannte heterogene auto-regressive Modell (HAR), das konzeptionell einfach und gut für Vorhersagen geeignet ist. Eine neue Herangehensweise...

A large number of nonlinear conditional heteroskedastic models have been proposed in the literature. Model selection is crucial to any statistical data analysis. In this article, we investigate whether the most commonly used selection criteria lead to choice of the right specification in a...