We investigate the likely sources of exchange rate dynamics in selected CIS countries (Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova) over the past decade (1999-2008). The analysis is based on country VAR models augmented by a regional common factor structure (FAVAR model)....

We investigate the likely sources of exchange rate dynamics in selected CIS countries (Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova) over the last dec-ade (1999-2010). Evidence is based on country VARs augmented by a regional com-mon factor structure (FAVAR model). The models...

We analyse the volatility structure of Asian currencies against the U.S. dollar (USD) for the Thai Baht THB, the Philippine Peso PHP, the Indonesian Rupiah IDR and the South Korean Won KRW. Our goal is to check if the characteristics of the volatility dynamics have changed in a K-state switching...

This paper revisits the Kareken-Wallace model of exchange rate formation in a two-country overlapping generations world. Following the seminal paper by Arifovic (Journal of Political Economy, 104, 1996, 510-541) we investigate a dynamic version of the model in which agents' decision rules are...

This paper revisits the Kareken-Wallace model of exchange rate formation in a two-country overlapping generations world. Following the seminal paper by Arifovic (Journal of Political Economy, 104, 1996, 510 – 541) we investigate a dynamic version of the model in which agents? decision rules...

A practice that has become widespread is that of comparing forecasts of financial return variability obtained from discrete time models against high frequency estimates based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial return variability modelling this raises several methodological and...

In this paper we examine the issue of asymmetry in the return and volatility spillover effects from the US equity market into the Canadian and Mexican equity markets. We model the conditional volatility of the returns in each of the three markets using the asymmetric power model of Ding, Granger...

Recently a variety of exchange and interest rate models capturing the dynamics during the transition from an exchange rate arrangement of floating rates into a currency union have been derived. While these stochastic equilibrium models in continous time are theoretically rigorous, a systematic...

The volatility of interest rates is relevant for many financial applications. Under realistic assumptions the term structure of interest rate differentials provides an important prediction of the term structure of interest rates. This paper derives the term structure of differentials in a...

Recent theory on exchange rate dynamics suggests that the mere announcement of regime switching from floating to fixed rates at a given future date triggers a reduction in exchange rate volatility during the interim period. Using a Markov-switching GARCH model this paper estimates the volatility...