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Price Dividend Ratio and Long-Run Stock Returns : A Score Driven State Space Model
Delle Monache, Davide - 2020
In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with time-varying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842441
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The Global Component of Inflation Volatility
Carriero, Andrea - 2018
Global developments play an important role in domestic inflation rates. Previous literature has found that a substantial amount of the variation in a large set of national inflation rates can be explained by a single global factor. However, inflation volatility has been typically neglected,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012919564
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Unobserved Components with Stochastic Volatility in U.S. Inflation : Estimation and Signal Extraction
Li, Mengheng - 2018
We consider unobserved components time series models where the components are stochastically evolving over time and are subject to stochastic volatility. It enables the disentanglement of dynamic structures in both the mean and the variance of the observed time series. We develop a simulated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012924242
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Unobserved components with stochastic volatility in U.S. inflation : estimation and signal extraction
Li, Mengheng; Koopman, Siem Jan - 2018
We consider unobserved components time series models where the components are stochastically evolving over time and are subject to stochastic volatility. It enables the disentanglement of dynamic structures in both the mean and the variance of the observed time series. We develop a simulated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011809984
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Price dividend ratio and long-run stock returns : a score driven state space model
Delle Monache, Davide; Petrella, Ivan; Venditti, Fabrizio - 2020
In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with timevarying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012156426
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Financial instability and economic activity
Fortin, Ines; Hlouskova, Jaroslava; Sögner, Leopold - 2021
estimating the level of (in)stability in a financial or economic system we measure the degree of predictability of (in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012792745
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Regularized estimation of structural instability in factor models : the US macroeconomy and the great moderation
Callot, Laurent; Kristensen, Johannes Tang - 2015
This paper shows that the parsimoniously time-varying methodology of Callot and Kristensen (2015) can be applied to factor models. We apply this method to study macroeconomic instability in the US from 1959:1 to 2006:4 with a particular focus on the Great Moderation. Models with parsimoniously...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532582
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Beyond connectedness: a covariance decomposition based network risk model
Akovalı, Umut - 2020
This study extends the Diebold-Yilmaz Connectedness Index (DYCI) methodology and, based on forecast error covariance decompositions, derives a network risk model for a portfolio of assets. As a normalized measure of the sum of variance contributions, system-wide connectedness averages out the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012170580
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Forecasting short-run inflation volatility using futures prices: An empirical analysis from a value at risk perspective
Benavides, Guillermo - 2010
In this research paper ARCH-type models are applied in order to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of an inflation … traded at the Mexican Derivatives Exchange (MEXDER). To analyze the VaR with time horizons of more than one trading day … day. However, the volatility persistence of ARCH-type models is reflected with relatively high VaR estimates for longer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322620
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Inflation uncertainty revisited: A proposal for robust measurement
Grimme, Christian; Henzel, Steffen; Wieland, Elisabeth - 2011
Any measure of unobserved inflation uncertainty relies on specific assumptions which are most likely not fulfilled completely. This calls into question whether an individual measure delivers a reliable signal. To reduce idiosyncratic measurement error, we propose using common information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010312179