I first show that taking moving averages of the term spread, the dividend yield, and the Shiller’s CAPE, significantly increases their ability to predict one month and 12-month forward equity market excess returns, and the state of the business cycle. Dividend yield, CAPE and term spread are...

This essay explores the link between the exponential probability density function and the present value function coupled with moment theory to derive important non probabilistic parameters from the Present value function in which are then used to derive a measure of the volatility of interest...

We use unique institutional securities holdings data to examine the trading behaviour of delegated institutional capital and its impact on bond risk premia. We show that institutional fund managers trade strongly procyclically: they actively move into higher yielding, longer duration and lower...

Institutional funds have concentrated ownership by a few institutional investors, infrequent outflows and essentially no leverage. Yet using unique granular data on the bond holdings of institutional funds, we show that their trading behavior is strongly procyclical: they actively move into...

This paper presents an equilibrium model in a pure exchange economy when investors have three possible sources of heterogeneity. Investors may differ in their beliefs, in their level of risk aversion and in their time preference rate. We study the impact of investors heterogeneity on the...

Model mis-specification can cause substantial utility losses in portfolio planning.In this paper, we compare two approaches to cope with this problem,robust control and learning. We derive the optimal portfolio strategies and theutility losses due to model mis-specification. Surprisingly,...

We derive representations for the stock price drift and volatility in theequilibrium of agents with arbitrary, heterogeneous utility functionsand with the aggregate dividend following an arbitrary Markov diffusion.We introduce a new, intrinsic characteristic of the aggregate dividendprocess that...

We derive representations for the stock price drift and volatility in the equilibrium of agents with arbitrary, heterogeneous utility functions and with the aggregate dividend following an arbitrary Markov diffusion. We introduce a new, intrinsic characteristic of the aggregate dividend process...

This paper presents an equilibrium model in a pure exchange economy when investors have three possible sources of heterogeneity. Investors may differ in their beliefs, in their level of risk aversion and in their time preference rate. We study the impact of investors heterogeneity on the...

We study survival, price impact and portfolio impact in heterogeneous economies. We show that, under the equilibrium risk-neutral measure, long-run price impact is in fact equivalent to survival, whereas longrun portfolio impact is equivalent to survival under an agent-specific, wealth-forward...