We propose a simple class of semiparametric multivariate GARCH models, allowing for asymmetric volatilities and time-varying conditional correlations. Estimates for time-varying conditional correlations are constructed by means of a convex combination of estimates for averaged correlations...

This paper considers spot variance path estimation from datasets of intraday high frequency asset prices in the presence of diurnal variance patterns, jumps, leverage effects and microstructure noise. We rely on parametric and nonparametric methods. The estimated spot variance path can be used...

Testing procedures for predictive regressions with lagged autoregressive variables imply a suboptimal inference in presence of small violations of ideal assumptions. We propose a novel testing framework resistant to such violations, which is consistent with nearly integrated regressors and...

This paper employs weighted least squares to examine the risk-return relation by applying high-frequency data from four major stock indexes in the US market and finds some evidence in favor of a positive relation between the mean of the excess returns and expected risk. However, by using...

Based on the theory of static replication of variance swaps we assess the sign and magnitude of variance risk premiums in foreign exchange markets. We find significantly negative risk premiums when realized variance is computed from intraday data with low frequency. As a likely consequence of...

The scaling properties of two alternative fractal models recently proposed to characterize the dynamics of stock market prices are compared. The former is the Multifractal Model of Asset Return (MMAR) introduced in 1997 by Mandelbrot, Calvet and Fisher in three companion papers. The latter is...

We examine the joint predictability of return and cash flow within a present value framework, by imposing the implications from a long-run risk model incorporating both time varying volatility and volatility uncertainty. We provide new evidence that the expected return variation and the variance...

This paper considers spot variance path estimation from datasets of intraday high frequency asset prices in the presence of diurnal variance patterns, jumps, leverage effects and microstructure noise. We rely on parametric and nonparametric methods. The estimated spot variance path can be used...

We compare more than 1000 different volatility models in terms of their fit to the historical ISE-100 Index data and their forecasting performance of the conditional variance in an out-of-sample setting. Exponential GARCH model of Nelson (1991) with “constant mean, t-distribution, one lag...