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We propose a new algorithm which allows easy estimation of Vector Autoregressions (VARs) featuring asymmetric priors and time varying volatilities, even when the cross sectional dimension of the system N is particularly large. The algorithm is based on a simple triangularisation which allows to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011389735
shown to be specific for commodity and market. A forecasting comparison on the basis of the identified models suggests that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291928
in forecasting from using bivariate models remained small otherwise. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292735
-memory counterparts. Since long memory models should have a particular advantage over long forecasting horizons, we consider predictions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294979
-memory counterparts. Since long memory models should have a particular advantage over long forecasting horizons, we consider predictions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295136
under the Basel Accord: A Bayesian approach to forecasting value-at-risk of VIX futures, fast clustering of GARCH processes … dynamics of BRICS's country risk ratings and domestic stock markets, U.S. stock market and oil price, forecasting value …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326135
new model achieves higher forecasting performance compared to a standard DCC model. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010330971
A practice that has become widespread and widely endorsed is that of evaluating forecasts of financial variability obtained from discrete time models by comparing them with high-frequency ex post estimates (e.g. realised volatility) based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010332964
variancefunctions. In a genuine out-of-sample forecasting experiment theperformance of the best fitted asMA-asQGARCH model is compared … topure asMA and no-change forecasts. This is done both in terms ofconditional mean forecasting as well as in terms of risk … forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011303289
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009767001