I propose a new explanation for the failure of Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) that can rationalize not only the classic UIP puzzle, but also the evidence that the puzzle reverses direction at longer horizons. In the model, excess currency returns arise as compensation for endogenous...

Previous studies have shown that, under certain conditions, a central bank could achieve a better trade-off between inflation and output volatility by replacing its inflation target with a price-level target. This paper studies whether a Taylor rule that targets the price-level instead of the...

The degree of international risk sharing matters for how monetary policy should optimally be conducted in an open economy. This is because risk sharing affects the way in which monetary policy is affected by terms of trade considerations. In a standard two-country model with monopolistic...

In a linear rational expectations two-country model, using an aggregate demand, aggregate supply framework, we analyse the effects of the adoption of an inflation-targeting regime on exchange rate volatility and the possible scope for policy coordination. This analysis is conducted using...

Inflation volatility is clearly important for structural analysis, forecasting and policy purposes, yet it is often overlooked in the literature. This paper compares in ation volatility among advanced open economies with in ation targeting monetary policy frameworks. The results of the empirical...

We analyse the interaction between private agents? uncertainty about inflation target and the central bank's data uncertainty. In our model, private agents update their perceived inflation target and the central bank estimates unobservable economic shocks as well as the perceived inflation...

The assumption of asymmetric and incomplete information in a standard New Keynesian model creates strong incentives for monetary policy transparency. We assume that the central bank has better information about its objectives than the private sector, and that the private sector has better...

We examine the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations by estimating a variety of richly parameterized DSGE models within a unified framework that incorpo- rates regime switching both in shock variances and in the inflation target. We propose an efficient methodology for estimating...

We estimate a multivariate unobserved components-stochastic volatility model to explain the dynamics of a panel of six exchange rates against the US Dollar. The empirical model is based on the assumption that both countries' monetary policy strategies may be well described by Taylor rules with a...