and statistically significant real-time improvements in forecast accuracy. The preferred MIDAS model reduces the MSPE by … as much as 16 percent compared with the no-change forecast and has statistically significant directional accuracy as high …

We use several US and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation … featuring time-varying uncertainty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the US … and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that …

accuracy (DA). No structured way being available to choose the free parameters of SVR, the sensitivity of performance is also …