The ad hoc Black-Scholes (AHBS) model is one of the most widely used option valuation models among practitioners models. The main contribution of this study is methodological. We have two main results: (1) we make the empirical observation that typically the call and put sneers are discontinuous...

This paper compares alternative models of time-varying macroeconomic volatility on the basis of the accuracy of point and density forecasts of macroeconomic variables. In this analysis, we consider both Bayesian autoregressive and Bayesian vector autoregressive models that incorporate some form...

In recent years, support vector regressions (SVRs), a novel artificial neural network (ANN) technique, has been successfully used as a nonparametric tool for regression estimation and forecasting time series data. In this thesis, we deal with the application of SVRs in financial markets...

Recent literature has focuses on realized volatility models to predict financial risk. This paper studies the benefit of explicitly modeling jumps in this class of models for value at risk (VaR) prediction. Several popular realized volatility models are compared in terms of their VaR forecasting...

This paper compares alternative models of time-varying macroeconomic volatility on the basis of the accuracy of point and density forecasts of macroeconomic variables. In this analysis, we consider both Bayesian autoregressive and Bayesian vector autoregressive models that incorporate some form...

The English version of this paper can be found at: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2227747" http://ssrn.com/abstract=2227747Çalışma, temel GARCH modelinin Destek Vektör Makinesi ve Yapay Sinir Ağları ile iyileştirilmiş modellerin incelenerek GARCH modelinin tahmin performansının...

In 2008, the S&P500 aggregated a loss of 30.16% during three selected days. Unfortunately, benchmark risk measures didn't forecast these hazards. Consequently, we witness a growing interest in coherent risk measures, sensitive to high moments and heavy tail risk. Such measures were proposed by...

We investigate if asset return volatility is predictable by macroeconomic and financial variables and shed light on the economic drivers of financial volatility. Our approach is distinct due to its comprehensiveness: First, we employ a data-rich forecast methodology to handle a large set of...

In this paper, we estimate, model and forecast Realized Range Volatility, a realized measure and estimator of the quadratic variation of financial prices. This quantity was early introduced in the literature and it is based on the high-low range observed at high frequency during the day. We...

This paper employs a semiparametric procedure to estimate the diffusion process of short-term interest rate. This method is compared in its ability to capture the dynamics of short rate volatility to a class of one-factor diffusion models where the conditional variance is serially correlated and...