We analyze the implications of financial openness to macroeconomic volatility in a small open economy. Major macroeconomic aggregates show non-monotonic volatility patterns with respect to the degree of financial openness in the model without domestic financial frictions. The introduction of...

Inflation volatility is clearly important for structural analysis, forecasting and policy purposes, yet it is often overlooked in the literature. This paper compares inflation volatility among advanced open economies with inflation targeting monetary policy frameworks. The results of the...

Inflation volatility is clearly important for structural analysis, forecasting and policy purposes, yet it is often overlooked in the literature. This paper compares in ation volatility among advanced open economies with in ation targeting monetary policy frameworks. The results of the empirical...

We find that, when estimated, a two sector computable dynamic stochastic general equilibrium open economy model of the U.S. that formally admits energy into the production process can generate plausible parameter values that can be applied to deal with a broad range of economic issues. As a...

The globalization of capital and product markets has many implications for economic welfare. Countries can specialize in the production of goods for which they have comparative advantages, and capital is allocated more efficiently. However, one potentially adverse effect of globalization is the...

Uncertainty about an economy’s regime can change drastically around a crisis. An imported crisis such as the global financial crisis in the euro area highlights the effect of foreign shocks. Estimating an open-economy nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the euro area and...

Uncertainty about an economy’s regime can change drastically around a crisis. An imported crisis such as the global financial crisis in the euro area highlights the effect of foreign shocks. Estimating an open-economy nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the euro area and...

What is the source of interest rate volatility? Why do low interest rates precede business cycle booms? Most observers tend to assume that monetary policy is largely responsible for it. Indeed, a standard real business cycle model delivers rather small fluctuations in real interest rates. Here,...

We show that the defining features of the Great Moderation were a shift from output volatility to medium-term fluctuations and a shift in the origin of those fluctuations from the real to the financial sector. We discover a Granger-causal relationship by which financial cycles attenuate...

We lay out an empirical and a theoretical model to analyze the effects of non-fundamental exchange rate volatility on economic activity and welfare. In the first part of the paper, the GARCH-SVARmodel is applied to measure empirically the effect of the conditional exogenous exchange rate...