This paper examines if overreaction of oil price forecasters is related to uncertainty. Furthermore, it takes into … is markedly reduced when high levels of uncertainty prevail. On the other hand, noisy signals and positive oil price …

This paper examines if overreaction of oil price forecasters is affected by uncertainty. Furthermore, it takes into … account joint effects of uncertainty and oil price returns on forecast changes. The panel smooth transition regression model … Professional Forecasters. The results show that forecasters overreact for low levels of uncertainty and underreact for increasing …

We show that US financial uncertainty has nonlinear spillover effects on the conditional distribution of forecasted GDP … a US financial uncertainty shock. Through the international credit channel, market participants’ pessimistic … expectations regarding future economic conditions amplify the tightening effect of US financial uncertainty on credit conditions …