How do financial markets switch from states of optimism to pessimism and vice versa? Given that a financial market is currently stable, what is the probability that it will become unstable and crash? We answer those questions in the context of a natural experiment with risk sources of...

The asset allocation decision often relies upon correlation estimates arising from short-run data. Short-run correlation estimates may, however, be distorted by frictions. In this paper, we introduce a long-run wavelet-based correlation estimator, distinguishing between long-run common behavior...

This paper investigates the optimal asset-liability management problems for two managers subject to relative performance concerns in the presence of stochastic inflation and stochastic volatility. The objective of the two managers is to maximize the expected utility of their relative terminal...

We consider dynamic sublinear expectations (i.e., time-consistent coherent risk measures) whose scenario sets consist of singular measures corresponding to a general form of volatility uncertainty. We derive a càdlàg nonlinear martingale which is also the value process of a superhedging...

I study the effects of risk and ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty) on optimal portfolios and equilibrium asset prices when investors receive information that is difficult to link to fundamentals. I show that the desire of investors to hedge ambiguity leads to portfolio inertia and excess...

We show that the hedging benefit of owning a home reduces the variability of housing consumption after a move. When a current home owner's house price covaries positively with housing costs in a future city, changes in the future cost of housing are offset by commensurate changes in wealth...

With model uncertainty characterized by a convex, possibly non-dominated set of probability measures, the investor minimizes the cost of hedging a path dependent contingent claim with given expected success ratio, in a discrete-time, semi-static market of stocks and options. Based on duality...

Many electricity markets exhibit an oligopolistic structure with market participants whose individual trading activities may shift prices essentially. In this context, the question of how to optimally liquidate an existing electricity futures portfolio over a fixed time horizon under the...

This paper investigates forecasts of long-term volatility for the fast-growing field of long-short factor strategies in an extensive in- and out-of-sample framework. More in detail, the study follows previous authors by empirically comparing various forecast configurations to provide guidance to...

Does performance volatility enable organizations to increase their rank relative to their rivals? While prior research has argued that rankings are derived from organizations’ realized (past) performance, under quality uncertainty, volatility could also confer advantages for increasing rank....