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Energy markets and global economic conditions
Baumeister, Christiane; Korobilis, Dimitris; Lee, Thomas - 2020
usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. We find that world industrial production is one of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012213172
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Large vector autoregressions with asymmetric priors
Carriero, Andrea; Clark, Todd E.; Marcellino, Massimiliano - 2015 - This draft: November 2015
We propose a new algorithm which allows easy estimation of Vector Autoregressions (VARs) featuring asymmetric priors and time varying volatilities, even when the cross sectional dimension of the system N is particularly large. The algorithm is based on a simple triangularisation which allows to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011389735
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Bayesian VARs and prior calibration in times of COVID-19
Hartwig, Benny - 2022
COVID-19 observations and discusses their impact on prior calibration for inference and forecasting purposes. It shows that … volatility. For forecasting, the choice among outlier-robust error structures is less important, however, when a large cross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013472790
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Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Variability
Sucarrat, Genaro - In: Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 3 (2009) 2009-8, pp. 1-33
A practice that has become widespread and widely endorsed is that of evaluating forecasts of financial variability obtained from discrete time models by comparing them with high-frequency ex post estimates (e.g. realised volatility) based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010332964
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Asymmetries in conditional mean and variance : modelling stock returns by asMA-asQGARCH
Brännäs, Kurt; Gooijer, Jan G. de - 2000
variancefunctions. In a genuine out-of-sample forecasting experiment theperformance of the best fitted asMA-asQGARCH model is compared … topure asMA and no-change forecasts. This is done both in terms ofconditional mean forecasting as well as in terms of risk … forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011303289
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Testing volatility in Nigeria stock market using GARCH models
Atoi, Ngozi V. - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 5 (2014) 2, pp. 65-93
forecasting volatility model with the most appropriate error distribution. The results suggest the presence of leverage effect … forecasting model that could guarantee a sound policy decisions. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489480
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The effects of Dollar/Sterling exchange rate volatility of futures markets for coffee and cocoa
Jumah, Adusei; Kunst, Robert M. - 1999
shown to be specific for commodity and market. A forecasting comparison on the basis of the identified models suggests that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291928
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The effects of exchange-rate exposures on equity asset markets
Jumah, Adusei; Kunst, Robert M. - 2001
in forecasting from using bivariate models remained small otherwise. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292735
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Risk Modelling and Management: An Overview
Chang, Chia-Lin; Allen, David E.; McAleer, Michael; … - 2013
under the Basel Accord: A Bayesian approach to forecasting value-at-risk of VIX futures, fast clustering of GARCH processes … dynamics of BRICS's country risk ratings and domestic stock markets, U.S. stock market and oil price, forecasting value …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326135
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Multivariate volatility modeling of electricity futures
Bauwens, Luc; Hafner, Christian M.; Pierret, Diane - 2011
new model achieves higher forecasting performance compared to a standard DCC model. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010330971