In this study global and national variables that affect the sovereign Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads for Turkey are examined. The study utilities monthly time-series data, spanning from August of 2009 to September 2018. Empirical analysis is done in two steps: In the first step, the...

Rising debt can threaten macroeconomic, financial, and fiscal stability, and thus fuels uncertainty among economic agents. Therefore, high levels of indebtedness may hinder economic growth especially for those economies with a large debt burden and may also amplify the volatility of GDP growth...

The welfare cost of economic uncertainty has a term structure that is a simple transformation of the term structures of the equity premium and interest rates. Twenty years of financial market data suggest a term structure of welfare costs that is downward-sloping on average, especially during...

More than 20 years of financial market data suggest a term structure of the welfare cost of economic uncertainty that is downward-sloping on average, especially during downturns. This evidence offers guidance in selecting a model to study the benefits of macroeconomic stabilization from a...

We propose a multivariate test based on no-arbitrage conditions under the stochastic discount factor approach, which compares cross-sectional variation in equity returns to the cross-sectional variation in their conditional covariance with the discount factors. Using the multivariate generalized...

Based on empirical VAR models, we investigate the role of (option-implied) stock and bond market volatilities and monetary policy in the determination of the US 10-year term premium. Our preliminary findings are that an unexpected loosening of monetary policy - through a cut in the federal funds...