We estimate a nonlinear VAR to quantify the impact of economic policy uncertainty shocks originating in the US on the Canadian unemployment rate in booms and busts. We find strong evidence in favor of asymmetric spillover effects. Unemployment in Canada is shown to react to uncertainty shocks in...

This paper investigates how the ordering of variables affects properties of the time-varying covariance matrix in the Cholesky multivariate stochastic volatility model. It establishes that estimated covariance matrices, obtained under alternative orderings of variables, are systemically...

This paper investigates how the ordering of variables affects properties of the time-varying covariance matrix in the Cholesky multivariate stochastic volatility model. It establishes that systematically different dynamic restrictions are imposed when the ratio of volatilities is time-varying....

We use the highest frequency data that have ever been studied before to investigate the relationship between the price of oil and stock market returns. In the context of a bivariate (identified using heteroscedasticity in daily data) structural VAR in stock market returns and the change in the...

We investigate mean and volatility spillovers between the crude oil market and the main biofuel feedstock markets (corn, soybean, and sugar). In doing so, we estimate a four-variable vector error correction (VEC) GARCH-in-Mean model with a BEKK representation for the variance equation, and also...

This paper investigates how the ordering of variables affects properties of the time-varying covariance matrix in the Cholesky multivariate stochastic volatility model. It establishes that systematically different dynamic restrictions are imposed when the ratio of volatilities is time-varying....

This paper investigates how the ordering of variables affects properties of the time-varying covariance matrix in the Cholesky multivariate stochastic volatility model.It establishes that systematically different dynamic restrictions are imposed whenthe ratio of volatilities is time-varying....

This paper estimates a trivariate two-factor conditional version of the Intertemporal CAPM of Merton (1973).

This paper shows that the explanation of the decline in the volatility of GDP growth since the mid-eighties is not the decline in the volatility of exogenous shocks but rather a change in their propagation mechanism.

Empirical evidence suggests a sharp volatility decline of the growth in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the mid-1980s. Using Bayesian methods, we analyze whether a volatility reduction can also be detected for the German GDP. Since statistical inference for volatility processes critically...