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Since when have FOREX markets incorporated EMU into currency pricing? Evidence from four exchange rate series
Wilfling, Bernd - 2001
-switching GARCH model this paper estimates the volatility processes of four EMU exchange rate returns vis-?-vis the German mark using … daily data for the time prior to Stage III of EMU. Statistical inference yields the dates at which financial markets began … to incorporate the expected EMU participation of each country into currency pricing. The data exhibits strong econometric …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295594
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The trade and FDI effects of EMU enlargement
Brouwer, Jelle; Paap, Richard; Viaene, Jean-Marie - 2007
European Monetary Union (EMU) to the 10 countries that obtained EU membership in 2004. One-way and two-way error component …. Using a simulation-based technique, we find that estimates of FDI effects of EMU range between 18.5% for Poland and 30% for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372974
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Exchange rate variability inside and outside the EMU
Bergbom, Lennart - 1998
An often heard view is that exchange rate variability will decrease for a country that joins the EMU. This is not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011589019
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Detection of implicit fluctuation bands and their credibility in EU candidate countries
Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón; Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen - In: Baltic journal of economics 15 (2015) 1, pp. 18-37
This paper attempts to identify implicit exchange-rate regimes for currencies of candidate countries vis-à-vis the euro. To that end, we apply three sequential procedures that consider the dynamics of exchange rates to data covering the period from 1999:01 to 2012:12. Our results would suggest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011890541
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Sources of euro real exchange rate fluctuations : what is behind the euro weakness in 1999-2000?
Döpke, Jörg; Gottschalk, Jan; Kamps, Christophe - 2001
This paper analyzes the factors underlying the weakness of the euro. For this purpose, the framework advocated by Clarida and Gali (1994) is used. Within this model, three structural shocks drive the dynamics of the endogenous variables: aggregate supply shocks, aggregate spending shocks, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473872
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Sources of Euro Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: What Is Behind the Euro Weakness in 1999-2000?
Gottschalk, Jan; Döpke, Jörg; Kamps, Christophe - 2001
This paper analyzes the factors underlying the weakness of the euro. For this purpose, the framework advocated by Clarida and Gali (1994) is used. Within this model, three structural shocks drive the dynamics of the endogenous variables: aggregate supply shocks, aggregate spending shocks, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260459
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Drivers of exchange rate dynamics in selected CIS countries: evidence from a FAVAR analysis
Dreger, Christian; Fidrmuc, Jarko - 2009
We investigate the likely sources of exchange rate dynamics in selected CIS countries (Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova) over the past decade (1999-2008). The analysis is based on country VAR models augmented by a regional common factor structure (FAVAR model)....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291774
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The relationship between exchange rates and International Trade: A review of economic literature
Auboin, Marc; Ruta, Michel - 2011
This paper surveys a wide body of economic literature on the relationship between currencies and trade. Specifically, two main issues are investigated: the impact on international trade of exchange rate volatility and of currency misalignments. On average, exchange rate volatility has a negative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326777
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Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Variability
Sucarrat, Genaro - In: Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 3 (2009) 2009-8, pp. 1-33
A practice that has become widespread and widely endorsed is that of evaluating forecasts of financial variability obtained from discrete time models by comparing them with high-frequency ex post estimates (e.g. realised volatility) based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010332964
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The crisis in the foreign exchange market
Melvin, Michael; Taylor, Mark P. - 2009
The financial crisis of 2007-2008 had major implications for the foreign exchange market. We review events and implications for exchange rates, volatility, returns to currency investing, and transaction costs. This blow-by-blow" narrative is intended to be a resource for researchers seeking a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266026