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Human beliefs, while always remaining in equilibrium, serve as a an equilibrium selector and determine the degree of aggregate volatility. Fully rational and risk averse economic agents expect macro-level dynamics to be characterized by a specific degree of volatility. Given this expectation the...
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We apply utility indifference pricing to solve a contingent claim problem, valuing a connected pair of gas fields where the underlying process is not standard Geometric Brownian motion and the assumption of complete markets is not fulfilled. First, empirical data are often characterized by...
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, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting … in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had … to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the …
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