Showing 1 - 10 of 1,919
are large and significant in terms of density f orecasting. An economic evaluation reveals that allowing for parameter …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486704
forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other approaches. In simulation experiments and an empirical … indices, the regression based evaluation strategy is compared with a recently proposed methodology based on likelihood ratio …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295725
forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other approaches. In simulation experiments and an empirical … indices, the regression based evaluation strategy is compared with a recently proposed methodology based on likelihood ratio …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431370
We propose exible models for multivariate realized volatility dynamics which involve generalizations of the Box-Cox transform to the matrix case. The matrix Box-Cox model of realized covariances (MBC-RCov) is based on transformations of the covariance matrix eigenvalues, while for the Box-Cox...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344500
We analyze the applicability of economic criteria for volatility forecast evaluation based on unconditional measures of … evaluation. An important implication is that forecasting superiority of models using high frequency data is likely to be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013153598
We propose a new method for multivariate forecasting which combines the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model (GDFM) and the multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroskedastic (GARCH) model. We assume that the dynamic common factors are conditionally heteroskedastic. The GDFM,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328519
This paper proposes a novel approach to the combination of conditional covariance matrix forecasts based on the use of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). It is shown how the procedure can be generalized to deal with large dimensional systems by means of a two-step strategy. The finite...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263760
The volatility implied by observed market prices as a function of the strike and time to maturity form an Implied Volatility Surface (IVS). Practical applications require reducing the dimension and characterize its dynamics through a small number of factors. Such dimension reduction is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274129
Empirical studies have shown that a large number of financial asset returns exhibit fat tails and are often characterized by volatility clustering and asymmetry. Also revealed as a stylized fact is Long memory or long range dependence in market volatility, with significant impact on pricing and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274140
management. Evaluation of volatility models is then considered and a simple Value-at-Risk (VaR) diagnostic test is proposed for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276219