Firmly-anchored inflation expectations are widely viewed as playing a central role in the successful conduct of … monetary policy. This paper presents estimates of trend inflation, based on information contained in survey expectations, the … term structure of interest rates, and realized inflation rates. My application combines a variety of data sources at the …

patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the 'normal regime', oil price … shocks are followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the … same direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a …

We analyse the interaction between private agents? uncertainty about inflation target and the central bank's data … uncertainty. In our model, private agents update their perceived inflation target and the central bank estimates unobservable … economic shocks as well as the perceived inflation target. Under those two uncertainties, the learning process of both private …

patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks … followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the same … direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential …

In this paper we study 2-state Markov switching VAR models of monthly unemployment and inflation for three countries …: Sweden, United Kingdom, and the United States. The primary purpose is to examine if periods of low inflation are associated … variance in unemployment. In the U.S. case we find that the variance of unemployment is lower in the low inflation regime than …

This paper summarises ongoing work that investigates the pass-through from shorthorizon and long-horizon inflation … forecasts as a way to assess the anchoring of inflation expectations across a sample of 44 economies. It reports an overall … decline in the pass-through, with the share of economies having anchored expectations increasing over time. Inflation …