In a seminal study Hodrick et al. (1991) evaluate the ability of a simple cash-credit model to produce realistic variability in consumption velocity while at the same time successfully explaining other key statistics. Sufficient variability in the latter is found to be associated with far too...

This paper examines the relationship between volatility shocks and preference shocks in an analytically tractable endogenous growth model with recursive preferences and stochastic volatility. I show that there exists an explicit mapping between volatility shocks and preference shocks, and a rise...

In a seminal study Hodrick et al. (1991) evaluate the ability of a simple cash-credit model to produce realistic variability in consumption velocity while at the same time successfully explaining other key statistics. Sufficient variability in the latter is found to be associated with far too...

What is the role of macroeconomic fluctuations and of oil supply shocks for oil prices, volatilities, and risk premia? I analyze this question within a general equilibrium asset pricing framework with an oil sector. The benchmark calibration shows that short-run macroeconomic growth shocks and...

This review article tries to answer four questions: (i) what are the stylized facts about uncertainty over time; (ii) why does uncertainty vary; (iii) do fluctuations in uncertainty matter; and (iv) did higher uncertainty worsen the Great Recession of 2007-2009? On the first question both macro...

This review article tries to answer four questions: (i) what are the stylized facts about uncertainty over time; (ii) why does uncertainty vary; (iii) do fluctuations in uncertainty matter; and (iv) did higher uncertainty worsen the Great Recession of 2007-2009? On the first question both macro...

This paper examines the effects of time-varying volatility on welfare. I construct a tractable endogenous growth model with recursive preferences, stochastic volatility, and capital adjustment costs. The model shows that a rise in volatility can decelerate growth in the absence of any level...

Why is inflation so much lower and at the same time more stable in developed economies in the 1990s, compared with the 1970s? This paper suggests that the United Kingdom, United States and other countries may have escaped from a volatile inflation equilibrium. Our argument builds on the story...

Integration to international capital markets is one of the key pillars of development. However, capital flows also bring volatility to emerging markets. Are there mechanisms to reap the benefits of capital flows without being hurt by their volatility? Are current practices, such as large...

We construct worker flows for the Japanese labor market in an internationally comparable manner, and study the consequences of the deep and lasting recession of the 1990s in the Japanese labor market. We analyze the changes in employment, unemployment and inactivity, as well as the worker flows...