We analyze the relation between volatility and speculative activities in the crude oil futures market and provide short-term forecasts accordingly. By incorporating trading volume and opening interest (speculative ratio) into the volatility dynamics, we document the subtle interaction between...

We propose using a new relative measure, the speculative ratio, defined as trading volume divided by open interest, to gauge speculative activity in the oil futures market. We apply the speculative ratio to examine the relation between basis and speculative activity in the oil futures market...

Given the exponential growth in ETF trading over the past decade, we consider the proposition that trading in ETFs transmits volatility to their largest component stocks and thus to the stock market in general. We find empirical support for this proposition, since volatility spillovers from ETFs...

This article examines the presence of common factors in the evolution of stock option implied volatilities. We analyze the implied volatilities of ETF options and their largest component stocks, and the results strongly suggest the presence of both a market volatility factor and an industry...

We study the impact of the announcements released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) crude oil storage every Wednesday at 10:30 ET (the beginning of the third half-hour interval) on intraday return predictability, that is, intraday momentum. Our results indicate that returns on...

Using exchange-traded fund (ETF) options data, we examine return predictability of variance risk premium in four commodity markets: crude oil, natural gas, gold and silver. We also analyze return predictability of upside and downside variance risk premiums using a decomposition model conditional...