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This study introduces a novel index based on expectations concordance for explaining stock-price volatility when novel events that are each somewhat unique cause unforeseeable change and Knightian uncertainty in the process driving outcomes. Expectations concordance measures the degree to which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012795039
This study introduces a novel index based on expectations concordance for explaining stock-price volatility when historically unique events cause unforeseeable change and Knightian uncertainty in the process driving outcomes. Expectations concordance measures the degree to which non-repetitive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013322439
empirical evidence is consistent with investors’ attitudes toward uncertainty and risk, firms’ fundamentals and leverage effects …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012887264
process (long-run risk channel), which strongly exacerbates the precautionary savings motive and the overall negative effects …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868859
Using a novel set of instrumental variables in a structural VAR framework, we investigate the economic impact of uncertainty shocks stemming from geopolitical swings in South Korea. We construct robust instrumental variables for examining the variations in uncertainty due to geopolitical swings...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012898238
We propose a new instrument to identify uncertainty shocks in a SVAR model with external instruments. The instrument is constructed by exploiting variations in the price of gold around events that capture periods of changes in uncertainty. The variations in the price of gold around the events...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011602536
This paper compares the aggregate effects of sectoral reallocation in the United States and Western Germany using a stochastic volatility model of sectoral employment growth. Reallocative shocks have no effect on the natural rate of unemployment in either country, and there is mild evidence that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009232258
contractionary effect of a reallocative shock should come from the direct aggregate effect of the underlying shock and not from human …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009232259
across countries through risk variables, spurring a literature on the "global financial cycle." This paper studies how … (conventional and unconventional) monetary policy shocks affect risk and uncertainty in three large economies: the US, euro area …, and Japan. We construct measures of financial risk factors for each country by decomposing option-implied variances of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834260
endogenous term premium. Using term structure and macroeconomic data, we find sizable effects of uncertainty on risk premia and … analytical decomposition to illustrate how multiple distinct endogenous risk wedges account for these differences. Supply and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014362538