This paper introduces a new out-of-sample forecasting methodology for monthly market returns using the variance risk premium (VRP) that is both statistically and economically significant. This methodology is motivated by the `beta representation,' which implies that the market risk premium is...

We examine the pricing of tail risk in international stock markets. We find that the tail risk of different countries is highly integrated. Introducing a new World Fear index, we find that local and global aggregate market returns are mainly driven by global tail risk rather than local tail...

In this note we document interactive relations between the excess volatility and the momentum effect in the cross-section of stock returns over the sample periods of 1963-1989, 1990-2010 and 1963-2010, along the line explored lately in Wang and Ma (2014). The nature of interactive relations...

This paper investigates whether realized and implied volatilities of individual stocks can predict the cross-sectional variation in expected returns. Although the levels of volatilities from the physical and risk-neutral distributions cannot predict future returns, there is a significant...

While it is well known that short selling predicts future negative stock price performance, it has not been established whether short selling predicts future negative operating performance. We find that firms in the top decile of increases in short interest (an increase of about four percentage...

Short sellers have been routinely blamed for triggering, or exacerbating, stock market declines. The experience of Taiwan provides an interesting case study of the impact of short selling bans on stock returns volatility in a time series framework due to the length of time the short selling ban...

This paper investigates two issues: whether there is heterogeneity for fund managers as investors and whether there is asymmetric volatility under short-sale constraints. If so, what are the driving factors in the Korean fund market? Fund return data from 2002 to 2008 are used to determine these...

Both the cross-sectional dispersion of U.S. stock returns and the VIX provide forecasts of alpha dispersion across high- and low-performing portfolios of stocks that are statistically and economically significant. These findings suggest that absolute return investors can use cross-sectional...

We construct a momentum factor that identifies cross-sectional winners and losers based on a weighting scheme that incorporates all the price data, over the entire lookback period, as opposed to only the first and last price points of the window. The weighting scheme is derived from the...

We investigate the pricing of risk-neutral skewness in the stock options market by creating skewness assets comprised of two option positions (one long and one short) and a position in the underlying stock. The assets are created such that exposure to changes in the price of the underlying stock...