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Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle

Reif, Magnus - 2019

Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125

Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession : an extended Markov-Switching dynamic factor model

Doz, Catherine; Ferrara, Laurent; Pionnier, Pierre-Alain - 2020

The Great Recession and the subsequent period of subdued GDP growth in most advanced economies have highlighted the need for macroeconomic forecasters to account for sudden and deep recessions, periods of higher macroeconomic volatility, and fluctuations in trend GDP growth. In this paper, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012227436

"Déjà vol" revisited : survey forecasts of macroeconomic variables predict volatility in the cross-section of industry portfolios

Conrad, Christian; Glas, Alexander - 2018

We investigate the question of whether macroeconomic variables contain information about future stock volatility beyond that contained in past volatility. We show that forecasts of GDP growth from the Federal Reserve's Survey of Professional Forecasters predict volatility in a cross-section of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011914124

Using survey information for improving the density nowcasting of US GDP with a focus on predictive performance during Covid-19 pandemic

Çakmaklı, Cem; Demircan, Hamza - 2020

We provide a methodology that efficiently combines the statistical models of nowcasting with the survey information for improving the (density) nowcasting of US real GDP. Specifically, we use the conventional dynamic factor model together with a stochastic volatility component as the baseline...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012295853

Up and Down : Forecast Revisions, Forecast Dispersion and Momentum

Liao, Yun - 2017

This paper investigates the relationships among cross-sectional stock returns and analysts' forecast revisions …, forecast dispersion and momentum. Market rewards the strategy in pursuit of revision up and away from revision down by 22 …-2015 periods. Revision up and revision down betas account for most of the momentum strategy and over half of forecast dispersion …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955959

The importance of time‐varying volatility and country interactions in forecasting economic activity

Trypsteen, Steven - In: Journal of forecasting 36 (2017) 6, pp. 615-628

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011861398

Forecasting of India VIX As Measure of Sentiment

Banerjee, Arindam - 2020

The India VIX represents the sentiment of traders in the Indian market, so by forecasting the future value of India VIX, we get a feel for investor sentiment in future. The objective of this study is to fit a forecasting model on India VIX using auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012844975

Forecasting in the presence of instabilities : how do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them

Rossi, Barbara - 2019 - This Draft: November 2019

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012209873

Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession

Lombardi, Marco; Maier, Philipp - 2011

We evaluate forecasts for the euro area in data-rich and 'data-lean' environments by comparing three different approaches: a simple PMI model based on Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs), a dynamic factor model with euro area data, and a dynamic factor model with data from the euro plus data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009380421

Forecasting Economic Growth in the Euro Area During the Great Moderation and the Great Recession

Lombardi, Marco - 2013

We evaluate forecasts for the euro area in data-rich and ‘data-lean' environments by comparing three different approaches: a simple PMI model based on Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs), a dynamic factor model with euro area data, and a dynamic factor model with data from the euro plus data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013080339