Based on data until the mid 2000s, oil price changes were shown to predict international equity index returns with a negative predictive slope. Extending the sample to 2015, we document that this relationship has been reversed over the last ten years and therefore has not been stable over time....

Using two newly available ultrahigh-frequency datasets, we investigate empirically how frequently one can sample certain foreign exchange and U.S. Treasury security returns without contaminating estimates of their integrated volatility with market micro-structure noise. We find that one can...

We document a strong positive cross-sectional relation between corporate bond yield spreads and bond return volatilities. As corporate bond prices are generally attributable to both credit risk and illiquidity as discussed in Huang and Huang (2012), we apply a decomposition methodology to...

We investigate the impact of short selling activity on trading activity and price volatility in the U.S corporate bond market. Consistent with prior literature, we find that investors use short selling as a platform to express their difference of opinions. In addition, we find that the positive...

We document strong U.S. stock and bond return predictability from several macroeconomic volatility series before 1982. Return predictability declined significantly during the Great Moderation in the post-1982 sample. Our empirical finding is robust to out-of-sample "real time" forecasts in terms...

Inspired by the recent literature on rare events and their impact on asset prices, we investigate the return predictability properties of a set of variables related to the risk of tail events extracted from equity market information and measures based on credit spreads. Our variables outperform...

In this paper, we study the skewness risk and its return predictability in the energy market. Skewness risk is often used to measure the possibility of market crash. We study both physical skewness (market skewness and cross-sectional average realized skewness) estimated from underlying stock...

We examine the pricing of tail risk in international stock markets. We find that the tail risk of different countries is highly integrated. Introducing a new World Fear index, we find that local and global aggregate market returns are mainly driven by global tail risk rather than local tail...

In contrast to earlier decades, since the early 2000s, the average idiosyncratic volatility of stocks has fallen back to its pre-1990s level. Here, we examine whether decreasing volatility still helps to explain the cross-sectional variation of bond returns. Using a panel data of corporate bond...

This paper examines the interaction between short-run return reversals, momentum and idiosyncratic volatility in the Australian market. We confirm that stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility earn low average returns over the next month. Unlike US studies which attribute this negative relation...