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autoregression framework to decompose crude oil price shocks into oil supply shock, oil aggregate demand shock, and oil …-specific demand shock. We then explore the distinct effects of different kinds of oil price shocks from various sources.Based on the … appear to be heterogeneous. Oil supply shock appears to be a net transmitter of spillover effects for all G7 countries within …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012418406
The Internet Appendix consists of three sections. Section A shows data sources and detailed data processing procedures. In Section B, we outline seven forecasting models. Last, Section C represents the empirical results
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013241114
This paper explores the possibility of the potential usage of machine learning models in the field of realized volatility forecasting of crude oil with a vast variety of empirical analyses and robustness checks. Although the conventional heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model is widely...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013241115
We construct downside variance risk premiums from the crude oil and gold option data and use them as proxies for market downside uncertainty risks. We find that these downside variance risk premiums contain commodity market specifc pricing information. Further- more, the gold market's exposure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839629
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012515144
This paper analyses the attributes and the significance of the roughness of oil market volatility. We employ unspanned stochastic volatility models driven by rough Brownian motions that yield semi-analytical prices for futures options entailing efficient calibration applications. By performing a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014260238
We analyze empirically what drives market expectations of crude oil price volatility. Between 2000 and 2014, we investigate the links between the term structure of oil option-implied volatilities (IVs) and global macroeconomic conditions, physical market fundamentals (OPEC surplus output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013245198
We analyze empirically what drives market expectations of crude oil price volatility. Between 2000 and 2014, we investigate the links between the term structure of oil option-implied volatilities (IVs) and global macroeconomic conditions, physical market fundamentals (OPEC surplus output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013245199
For six important energy futures markets, this study examines whether large price movements (i.e., jumps) are related to the arrival and information content of scheduled macroeconomic announcements. Since prior studies by Kilian and Vega [(2011) Review of Economics and Statistics, 93, 660–671]...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012981311
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027323