We discover a new currency strategy with highly desirable return and diversification properties, which uses the predictive capability of currency volatility risk premia for currency returns. The volatility risk premium -- the difference between expected realized volatility and model-free implied...

This paper addresses the predictive ability of currency volatility risk premium - the difference between an implied and a realized volatility - over US dollar exchange rates using a time series perspective. The intuition is that, when risk aversion sentiment increases, the market quickly...

I show that volatility risk of the dollar factor --- an equally weighted basket of developed U.S. dollar exchange rates --- carries a significant risk premium and that it is priced in the cross-section of currency volatility excess returns. The dollar factor volatility risk premium is negative...

The study analyses the interaction between the trading behaviour of 1,024 moving average and momentum models and the fluctuations of the yen-dollar exchange rate. I show first that these models would have exploited exchange rate trends quite profitably between 1976 and 2007. I then show that the...

We analyze the returns to targeting the Australian, New Zealand and South African currencies, through Japanese yen-funded forward market speculation – with a particular focus on the South African rand. Targeting the rand through forward currency speculation generates returns which are as...

We investigate carry trade opportunities in major currencies against the US Dollar over the period 2 Jan 1999 to 31 Dec 2012. There is evidence of significant Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro and Japanese Yen (JPY) carry trades during non-crisis periods. The AUD (JPY) was an investment (a funding)...

We investigate carry trade opportunities in major currencies against the US Dollar over the period 2 Jan 1999 to 31 Dec 2012. There is evidence of significant Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro and Japanese Yen (JPY) carry trades during non-crisis periods. The AUD (JPY) was an investment (a funding)...

We compare the effects of the US macro news on the exchange rates of carry trade target currencies and safe-haven currencies in the post-GFC period. Relying on the data of 5-min changes of exchange rates, we find significant responses of currencies to the surprises of the US macro news. The...

The purpose of this study is to examine the role of options volatility and bid-ask spread as microstructural variables in determining whether the foreign exchange market’s price formation process in response to macroeconomic announcements is characterised by changes in risk perception and...

We analyse carry trades involving the Australian dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Indian rupee, New Zealand dollar and Philippine peso as target currencies. We find evidence supporting the view that downside risk is an important feature of such strategies and propose ways of measuring this risk