Showing 71 - 80 of 40,379
Dynamic economic models make predictions about impulse responses that characterize how macroeconomic processes respond to alternative shocks over different horizons. From the perspective of asset pricing, impulse responses quantify the exposure of macroeconomic processes and other cash flows to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014024262
Purpose - This article examines volatility spillovers, cross-market correlation, and comovements between selected … Methodology - We propose to estimate and model volatility using GARCH family models for selected European markets. We aim to … explore volatility movement, presence of leverage effect/ asymmetry in selected financial markets. Findings - The econometric …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012695346
Volatility in financial markets is a highly explored area of research for the last few decades. Possible reasons for … macroeconomic variables as determinants of financial markets (stock market and exchange rate) volatility. It also aims to analyse … the contribution of the volatility of one financial market to the volatility of another financial market before and after …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012814087
Using data on international, on-line media coverage and tone of the Brexit referendum, we test whether it is media coverage or tone to provide the largest forecasting performance improvements in the prediction of the conditional variance of weekly FTSE 100 stock returns. We find that versions of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012487265
In light of the recent discussion regarding the measurement of uncertainty and its impact on economic activity, this paper derives forward-looking measures of uncertainty and directional expectations for the CHF/EUR exchange rate based on over-the-counter option data and analyses its impact on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011946988
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011487821
This paper examines co-movements and volatility spillovers in the returns of the euro, the British pound, the Swiss … significant co-movements and volatility spillovers across the four exchange returns, but their extend is, on average, lower in the … latter period. Return co-movements and volatility spillovers show large variability though, and are positively associated …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011347744
Instabilities in the price dynamics of a large number of financial assets are a clear sign of systemic events. By investigating a set of 20 high cap stocks traded at the Italian Stock Exchange, we find that there is a large number of high frequency cojumps. We show that the dynamics of these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087635
We investigate whether the response of the macro-economy to oil price shocks undergoes episodic changes. Employing a regime-switching vector autoregressive model we identify two regimes that are characterized by qualitatively different patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011709632
We use several US and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time-varying uncertainty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the US and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011803186