Despite its importance to OM, demand forecasting has been perceived as a “problem-solving” exercise; most empirical … under high demand volatility for procurement managers to make better inventory decisions. In response to requests for an … integrated forecasting methodology, we undertook an iterative process based on three guiding principles — data pooling, theory …

This paper constructs a model of a supply chain to examine how demand volatility is passed upstream through the chain …

Using firm and industry data, we establish two facts: (i) Uncertainty about demand conditions not only reduces export … regularities by developing a new firmbased trade model wherein managers are risk averse. Higher volatility induces the reallocation … of export shares from the most to the least productive incumbents. Greater skewness of the demand distribution and …

autoregression framework to decompose crude oil price shocks into oil supply shock, oil aggregate demand shock, and oil …-specific demand shock. We then explore the distinct effects of different kinds of oil price shocks from various sources.Based on the …

/1991, speculative demand shocks also played a role. Third, it is shown that temporary oil price hikes influence economic decisions that … demand shocks can emerge that to date appear to have been overlooked. …