We develop a new oil price uncertainty index (OPUX) based on newspaper and social networking coverage. Our index improves on the existing oil ETF volatility index (OVX) because financial markets are inefficient insofar as prices do not reflect all information (Shiller, 1981). Several pieces of...

We examine the efficacy with which the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) predicts future (30 day forward) S&P realized volatility. We find that the VIX’s accuracy is about 63%. An alternative framework that we present, built on asymptotic distribution theory, predicts this volatility with an...

We use the VIX and basic trading behavior to time entry and exit from the market. Our strategy captures 89% of the bottom and 91% from the top (you miss only 11% and 9% from the peak point, respectively). We lay our strategy down in six acts. Act I: the daily average return in the stock market...

This paper presents steps to lower the overall volatility in the stock market; as a large portion is unrewarded and unjustified and driven by overreaction accompanies with herd behavior. We first map the key factors that cause volatility, such as: earnings surprise, CEO turnovers, merge and...