We identify local and global factors across international bond markets that are poorly spanned by the traditional level, slope and curvature factors but have strong forecasting power for future bond excess returns. Local and global factors are jointly significant predictors of bond returns,...

This paper introduces a new information density indicator to provide a more comprehensive understanding of price reactions to news and, more specifically, to the sources of jumps in financial markets. Our information density indicator, which measures the abnormal amount of noisy “ticker”...

In this study a regime switching approach is applied to estimate the chartist and fundamentalist (c&f) exchange rate model originally proposed by Frankel and Froot (1986). The c&f model is tested against alternative regime switching specifications applying likelihood ratio tests. Nested...

Based on the theory of static replication of variance swaps we assess the sign and magnitude of variance risk premiums in foreign exchange markets. We find significantly negative risk premiums when realized variance is computed from intraday data with low frequency. As a likely consequence of...

This paper develops a model of exchange rate dynamics that takes into account speculative positions in foreign and domestic equities in addition to the "standard" positions in short-term riskless deposits. The modeling of cross-country stock holdings is motivated by evidence that a large and...

The relationship between trading volume and volatility in foreign exchange markets continues to be of much interest, especially given the higher than expected volatility of returns. Allowing for non-linearities, this paper tests competing hypotheses on the possible relationship between...

I assess the relation between cross-sectional return dispersion in foreign exchange (FX) markets and currency momentum. I find that cross-sectional dispersion is priced in the cross-section of currency momentum returns and that an unexpected increase in cross-sectional dispersion is associated...

We identify a global risk factor in the cross-section of implied volatility returns in currency markets. A zero-cost strategy that buys forward volatility agreements with downward sloping implied volatility curves and sells those with upward slopes - volatility carry strategy - generates...

This paper addresses the predictive ability of currency volatility risk premium - the difference between an implied and a realized volatility - over US dollar exchange rates using a time series perspective. The intuition is that, when risk aversion sentiment increases, the market quickly...

We investigate the pricing of volatility risks in currency markets. First, we show that pricing ability of volatility risk is concentrated in some of its components. Diffusive volatility dominates jump volatility in pricing carry trade returns, while jump volatility is important in jointly...