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oil price volatility on each sector in Japan, the world's third-largest crude oil consumer. In order to do so, we apply a …, which led to the shutdown of nuclear power plants in Japan, because of greater reliance on oil imports, the sensitivity of … most sectors to oil price volatility declined. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305347
volatility. We extend a reduced form Structural Break Threshold Vector Autoregressive (SBT-VAR) model to a structural SBT … geopolitical risk shock, the other with a simultaneous shale production shock and a geopolitical risk shock. The volatility … volatility response of oil prices to a geopolitical risk shock is higher, but the response is less correlated with the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012911915
The unparalleled surge of the crude oil price after 2003 has triggered a heated scientific and public debate about its ultimate causes. Unexpected demand growth particularly from emerging economies appears to be the most prominently supported reason among academics. We study the price dynamics...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013099330
The run-up in oil prices since 2004 coincided with growing investment in commodity markets and increased price comovement among different commodities. We assess whether speculation in the oil market played a role in driving this salient empirical pattern. We identify oil shocks from a large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107787
The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011502542
investigate how oil price volatility behaves when the index unexpectedly changes. I find that unexpected increases in the … newspaper index are strongly associated with higher levels of oil price volatility, both realized and implied. In some cases …, interest levels and price volatility appear to be driven by the OPEC event itself, such as the Iraq invasion of Kuwait. In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011880504
volatility as well as the U.S. economy. We find that - even after accounting for these factors - oil price uncertainty still has … confirms these results. Finally, significant spillover effects in the GARCH model suggest that oil price volatility is a gauge …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011608019
measure of oil price uncertainty, namely an option-implied volatility, and a measure of macroeconomic uncertainty. Positive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012937163
We study the identification of oil shocks in a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model of the oil market. First, we show that the cross-equation restrictions of a SVAR impose a nonlinear relation between the short-run price elasticities of oil supply and oil demand. This relation implies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210426
There has been much interest in the relationship between the price of crude oil, the value of the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. interest rate since the 1980s. For example, the sustained surge in the real price of oil in the 2000s is often attributed to the declining real value of the U.S. dollar as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012317340