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systematic risk is highly nonlinear in extreme scenarios-especially during the subprime crisis. We find that countercyclical …-traditional risk premia by deliberately increasing their systematic risk while the later focus more on minimizing risk. Our results … suggest that the hedge fund strategies' betas respond more to illiquidity uncertainty than to illiquidity risk during crises …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013169857
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014327761
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012700481
influential for Value at Risk (VaR) performance than the conditional volatility specification. We also show that some recently … alternatives for VaR forecasting, and they should be preferred when estimating tail risk. The flexibility of the free power …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012949316
We study a class of backtests for forecast distributions in which the test statistic is a spectral transformation that weights exceedance events by a function of the modeled probability level. The choice of the kernel function makes explicit the user's priorities for model performance. The class...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011927115
Portfolio risk estimation in volatile markets requires employing fat-tailed models for financial returns combined with … copula functions to capture asymmetries in dependence and an appropriate downside risk measure. In this survey, we discuss … how these three essential components can be combined together in a Monte Carlo based framework for risk estimation and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134877
Managed volatility strategies adjust market exposure in inverse relation to a risk estimate, to stabilize realized … long-term data from the Standard & Poor's 500, we show that these strategies offer an improvement in risk-adjusted return … compared with a buy-and-hold benchmark, on average, but with some variation. Managed volatility strategies achieve robust tail-risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012900599
This paper proposes a risk measure, based on first-passage probability, which reflects intra-horizon risk in jump … models with finite or infinite jump activity. Our empirical investigation shows, first, that the proposed risk measure … consistently exceeds the benchmark Value-at-Risk (VaR). Second, jump risk tends to amplify intra-horizon risk. Third, we find large …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013008970
We study the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) shocks on the long-run stock market variances and correlations, primarily for the US and the UK. We find that US EPU shocks affect both US and UK stock market long-run variances and correlation, but UK EPU shocks only affect its own...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012855094
Dynamic economic models make predictions about impulse responses that characterize how macroeconomic processes respond to alternative shocks over different horizons. From the perspective of asset pricing, impulse responses quantify the exposure of macroeconomic processes and other cash flows to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014024262