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predict realized correlations. This paper considers a MIDAS approach to forecast realized correlation matrices. A MIDAS model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012891274
The India VIX represents the sentiment of traders in the Indian market, so by forecasting the future value of India VIX, we get a feel for investor sentiment in future. The objective of this study is to fit a forecasting model on India VIX using auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012844975
-frequency data and, at the same time produces a direct forecast of the variance at the desired horizon, without iterating. The MIDAS …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011976983
Implied volatility index of the S&P500 is considered as a dependent variable in a fractionally integrated ARMA model, whereas volatility measures based on interday and intraday datasets are considered as explanatory variables. The next trading day’s implied volatility forecasts provide...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014183681
We investigate the question of whether macroeconomic variables contain information about future stock volatility beyond that contained in past volatility. We show that forecasts of GDP growth from the Federal Reserve's Survey of Professional Forecasters predict volatility in a cross-section of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011914124
weight, we develop two simple and effective forecast combination methods. Using an array of 86 equity, bond, forex, futures … realized volatility out-of-sample prediction performance relative to several extant forecast combinations. This result is … robust for different individual forecast models, for different dependent variables, and for different out-of-sample periods …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013296031
We provide a methodology that efficiently combines the statistical models of nowcasting with the survey information for improving the (density) nowcasting of US real GDP. Specifically, we use the conventional dynamic factor model together with a stochastic volatility component as the baseline...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012295853
forecast accuracy are small, with predictability varying substantially across forecast horizons and commodity indices, but they …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486704
attracted attention in the literature on the price variability of energy markets. However, results that would guide … commonly used to forecast realized volatility, this paper also contributes to the literature by coupling realized measures with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010429924
-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the dynamics in the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 115 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012416151