patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks … followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the same … direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential …

of total inflation to price nominal Treasuries. This approach captures different frequencies in inflation fluctuations … a common structure of latent factors determines and predicts the term structure of yields and inflation. The model … outperforms popular benchmarks and is at par with the Survey of Professional Forecasters in forecasting inflation. Real rates …

patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the 'normal regime', oil price … shocks are followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the … same direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a …

Inflation expectations play a key role in determining future economic outcomes. The associated uncertainty provides a … direct gauge of how well-anchored the inflation expectations are. We construct a model-based measure of inflation … expectations uncertainty by augmenting a standard unobserved components model of inflation with information from noisy and possibly …

This study provides new evidence about inflation expectations formation in a highly volatile environment, in which … inflation dropped dramatically from three-digits annual rate to less than 3%. Our findings, based on an Israeli survey of firms … forecast errors. Most importantly, both inattentiveness and asymmetry depend on inflation, being more pronounced when inflation …

This paper summarises ongoing work that investigates the pass-through from shorthorizon and long-horizon inflation … forecasts as a way to assess the anchoring of inflation expectations across a sample of 44 economies. It reports an overall … decline in the pass-through, with the share of economies having anchored expectations increasing over time. Inflation …