It is generally believed that excessive stock market volatility reflects non-mathematical market expectations that are driven by “irrational exuberance” or “animal spirits”. As shown in this paper, there is an alternative explanation. If ex-ante and ex-post expectations are calculated in...

The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information...

1 Introduction -- 2 Microstructure Foundations -- 3 Empirical Properties of High-Frequency Data -- 4 Financial Point Processes -- 5 Univariate Multiplicative Error Models -- 6 Generalized Multiplicative Error Models -- 7 Vector Multiplicative Error Models -- 8 Modelling High-Frequency Volatility...