We study both theoretically and empirically option prices on firms undergoing a cash merger offer. To estimate the merger's success probability, we use a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using a state space representation of our model. Our estimated probability measure has significant...

We construct a model to illustrate the dynamics of cash flow volatility and firm valuation. As a firm progressively invests into its growth opportunities, its book value increases and catches up with its market value, reducing the valuation multiple (Q). Cash flow volatility (CFV) decreases due...

This paper studies the relation between firm value and a firm's growth options. We find strong empirical evidence that (average) Tobin's Q increases with firm-level volatility. The significance mainly comes from R&D firms, which have more growth options than non-R&D firms. By decomposing...