This paper sheds new light on the asymmetric dynamics in upstream U.S. gasoline prices. The model is based on Pindyck's inventory model of commodity price dynamics. We show that asymmetry in gasoline price dynamics is caused by changes in the net marginal convenience yield: higher costs of...

We revisit Wintenberger (2013) on the continuous invertibility of the EGARCH(1,1) model. We note that the definition of continuous invertibility adopted in Wintenberger (2013) may not always be sufficient to deliver strong consistency of the QMLE. We also take the opportunity to provide other...

The paper aims to estimate the impact of calendar effects in volatility of the preferred and ordinary shares of Vale. The data researched were the stocks prices Vale between January 2, 1995 and October 26, 2011. The Stochastic Volatility Model (SV) was the Model and the Kalman Filter was the...

Forecasting volatility models typically rely on either daily or high frequency (HF) data and the choice between these two categories is not obvious. In particular, the latter allows to treat volatility as observable but they suffer from many limitations. HF data feature microstructure problem,...

This paper introduces a Bayesian MCMC method, referred to as a marginalized mixture sampler, for state space models whose disturbances follow stochastic volatility processes. The marginalized mixture sampler is based on a mixture-normal approximation of the log-2 distribution, but it is...

We propose a number of volatility measures that are based on ensemble averaging instead of time averaging. These measures allow fast measurement of current volatility without relying on series of past data (realized volatility) of future expectations (implied volatility). The introduced...

Until recently the liquidity of financial assets has typically been viewed as a second-order consideration. Liquidity was frequently associated with simple transaction costs that impose - temporary if any- effect on asset prices, and whose shocks could be easily diversified away. Yet the...

Proper measurement of volatility is vital in financial decisions. Estimating volatility accurately also requires properly capturing the conditional distribution, fat tails and price spikes. In this study, we model the volatility of Natural Gas Futures, Brent Oil Futures and Heating Oil Futures...

In July 2011, Uganda reformed its monetary policy framework citing “challenges of macroeconomic management and the rapid growth and diversification of the financial system” MPC July (2011). This paper reviews the effect of foreign exchange interventions on the inflation target policy in...

Additionally to the financial crisis causing a world recession, Liechtenstein’s financial sector has been challenged by the so-called "Zumwinkel-Affair" when a whistle-blower sold data of hundreds of tax evaders to international tax authorities. This paper investigates the impact of this...