Krugman (1991)'s target zone model has become the reference of a large part of this literature. Despite its simplicity and elegance, empirical evidence has been lacking. Deriving from Krugman's model analytical expressions for the conditional volatility and density distribution close to the...

This paper demonstrates that crude estimators can correctly identify statistically significant technical patterns in major index data. The introduction of intra-day prices significantly improves a crude estimators’ ability to identify technical barriers. Double tops are associated with...